Hurricane Michael Forecast Advisory Number 13

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 092054
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FERNANDINA BEACH
FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA
* FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS
IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  86.4W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE  70SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  86.4W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  86.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N  86.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.7N  85.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.8N  84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.9N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 140SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N  70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 45.5N  51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 50.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N  86.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN