Hurricane Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

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FONT14 KNHC 100848
PWSAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018               
0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  36(36)   X(36)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  32(32)   5(37)   X(37)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   2( 2)  14(16)  23(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   5( 5)  22(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   5( 5)  41(46)   5(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   9( 9)  60(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   3( 3)  13(16)  10(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   4( 4)  17(21)   6(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   5( 5)  22(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   8( 8)  29(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1  17(18)  31(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ATLANTA GA     34  2  35(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)

AUGUSTA GA     34  2  36(38)  49(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   2( 2)  31(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
AUGUSTA GA     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAVANNAH GA    34  2  33(35)  23(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

KINGS BAY GA   34  3  33(36)   3(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)

WAYCROSS GA    34  5  71(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  3  24(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

JACKSONVILLE   34  3  34(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  9  32(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  2   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

THE VILLAGES   34  3   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

ORLANDO FL     34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PATRICK AFB    34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

VENICE FL      34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

TAMPA FL       34  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

CEDAR KEY FL   34 45  11(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 27  68(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  1  36(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

ST MARKS FL    34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ST MARKS FL    50 27  57(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
ST MARKS FL    64  2  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

APALACHICOLA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
APALACHICOLA   50 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
APALACHICOLA   64 43   7(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 93   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 95   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 55   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64 10   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

COLUMBUS GA    34 11  81(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
COLUMBUS GA    50  1  16(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
COLUMBUS GA    64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

BIRMINGHAM AL  34  2   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MONTGOMERY AL  34 12  44(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

WHITING FLD FL 34 93   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
WHITING FLD FL 50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

PENSACOLA FL   34 91   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
PENSACOLA FL   50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 51   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MOBILE AL      34  4   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

GULFPORT MS    34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

STENNIS MS     34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BURAS LA       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

JACKSON MS     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN